Intresting Analysis of the APC rift that led to Saraki's Senate Presidency - By Emeka Ugwonye
Contrary to the viewpoint that the APC was lost and that PDP manipulated them, there is an alternative viewpoint that argues otherwise. According to this alternative viewpoint, the conflict we are seeing was actually engineered on purpose by some element of APC, and PDP is not really in charge of any of this. Further according to this view, PDP is just a tail being wagged by a smart and deft faction of the APC.
It has always been argued that given the nature and circumstances under which APC came into existence, it would be difficult for the APC subgroups to remain in tact. In fact, people predicted that APC would fall apart even before the elections. This was why Dr. Okupe had boasted that if APC survived till the end of 2014, people should call him a bastard. While that statement has caused Okupe considerable embarrassment, the fact is that the thought that led to such pronouncement was not totally without some logic to it.
APC, as the full name goes, is an alliance of several political parties or groups, the principal parties being the ACN, led by Tinubu; the ANPP, led by Dr. Onu, and the CPC, led by Buhari. There are other elements such as ADN and those that joined later. But let us focus on the first three.
Of all, the ACN seemed to be the most well established and in control of major cities like Lagos and Ibadan and several important states in the West and midwest. ACN was powerful enough to have nearly taken over Kogi State, which would have been its first and dramatic entry into the former Northern Region. CPC with Buhari was quite strong in the North West and Northeast. ANPP was actually the partner that looked really weak from the start. ANPP was not strong anywhere. But then, for symbolism sake, it suggested the involvement of some Igbo element in the alliance.
As the campaign seas on and elections approached, ti was clear that ANPP would not pull its weight in any serious way. It really fell to Tinubu/ACN faction and the CPC/Buhari faction to lead APC to victory. Right front that moment there were questions of how to share the sweets and sweats of APC politics. The first question was who would be the Presidential candidate. Tinubu would have been in the ticket along with Buhari. But the Muslim/Muslim issue came up. That frustrated any idea of Tinubu and Buhari teaming up. It also frustrated the possibility of Tinubu sending his protege, Fashiola, to team up with Buhari. Tinubu finally settled with sending another protege, Osinbanjo, who was Tinubu's Attorney General while the former was the Governor of Lagos for 8 years.
During the time it came for Buhari to choose a running mate. Ogbonnaya Onu had rightfully wanted to be Buhari's pick. But Buhari really had no choice. He must accord Tinubu that right or priority given the weight Tinubu controlled in the alliance.
Everybody understood that in politics so much would depend on who had the financial muscles to pay for things. So, financing of the campaign was going to be an issue of power and control. Since Buhari did not have a lot of money himself, there was fear that he could become totally emasculated by Tinubu's limitless resources, which controlled not just the vast assets within Lagos, but also the contributions and rents paid by ACN state governments all over the western part of Nigeria.
The Northern elements in APC understood the implications of leaving Buhari at the mercy of Tinubu as far as financing the campaign was concerned. So, some powerful Northern figures such as Atiku and Abdulmutalab and many more deeped into their infinite resources and supplied Buhari money and all he needed to avoid being emasculated by Tinubu. That effort to keep Buhari independent of Tinubu remained till today, and in fact, it manifested in the NASS brouhaha.
Elections over, it came to a time of choosing the cabinet. Again, the big financier, Tinubu, comes up with his list and demand for priority portfolios. Again the Northern elements disagreed. Buhari was again in the middle. But it is obvious to him the implications of Tinubu faction wielding too much influence in his government. It was impossible to totally ignore Tinubu, especially as it was not yet fully certain the level of power and influence he would retain over the party.
As of today, the ANPP elements in the alliance are virtually dead. As a result, Onu is hardly mentioned these days when you discuss power sharing within APC.
To fully determine how to complete the cabinet selection process, it was necessary to see how the power game played out in the selection of the leaders of the National Assembly. Tinubu's preferred candidates were those favoured by the party, which reflected Tinubu's influence level in the party. The Northern APC elements knew that allowing Tinubu's candidates to emerge as the leaders of the National Assembly would be a problem for Buhari and for their faction. They have carefully studied Tinubu's political machine. They knew Tinubu's political method. One way Tinubu was able to control the governors of Lagos and other ACN governors was to control the state legislature. By controlling the legislature, the executive governor remains under the control of Tinubu. This was the case throughout Fashiola's two terms. With that control, Tinubu could cause the governor to be impeached if he became disloyal to Tinubu. It was feared by the Northern element that Tinubu was trying to control Buhari through the same method of controlling the federal legislature. Tinubu already had his wife as a Senior Senator. Most of the Senior APC Senators are from ACN. So, since the chairmanship of Senate and House Committees are based on seniority, it would mean that ACN Senators, loyal to Tinubu would be mostly the chairmen of the various Senate and House Committees. There was reason to fear Tinubu's intentions toward the Senate and the House leaders. Hence the effort to derail that and whittle down his influence in order to minimise his leverage over Buhari.
So, when Buhari said he did not want to interfere in the selection of the House and Senate leaders, people should have asked him why was it necessary to issue such a disclaimer. The fact is that the President understood the dynamics all along. If Tinubu's controlled the Senate, then there may be difficulty getting senate confirmation for any minister unless Tinubu was happy. Hence the need to delay cabinet appointments until one was sure about what level of influence Tinubu would have over the 8th Senate.
The Northern elements of the APC had to fight and defeat Tinubu on the House and Senate leadership selection. The interesting dynamics here is that the Northern elements understood that in order to defeat Tinubu they needed the support of the Southeast and South South. Forget the reference to the parties. It was purely an NPN-game of aligning the North with the South East and South South in order to defeat the West. However, on the surface, it appears that the PDP members were smart and intelligent.
Many understand the dynamics. Actually, Tinubu's enemies, even in the West, are happy that Tinubu has been cut to size over the NASS matter. Indeed, Bode George, in an interview to the dailies, described the whole development in quite a fascinating and dramatic tone. He said that Tinubu wanted to play at the Federal level the same game he had perfected in Lagos. He summed it up as Tinubu being taught the real politics. He claimed that Tinubu was a local champion who had been outsmarted at the national stage.
If these assessments were correct, then what happened at NASS is quite a profound development. The long term effects are yet to be fully ascertained. One thing seems clear, though. The CPC and ACN elements in APC will soon part ways. APC as we know it will not survive till the next elections. What happens is that there will be a reformulation of another alliance to sustain these political players.
We continue to watch and observe.
It has always been argued that given the nature and circumstances under which APC came into existence, it would be difficult for the APC subgroups to remain in tact. In fact, people predicted that APC would fall apart even before the elections. This was why Dr. Okupe had boasted that if APC survived till the end of 2014, people should call him a bastard. While that statement has caused Okupe considerable embarrassment, the fact is that the thought that led to such pronouncement was not totally without some logic to it.
APC, as the full name goes, is an alliance of several political parties or groups, the principal parties being the ACN, led by Tinubu; the ANPP, led by Dr. Onu, and the CPC, led by Buhari. There are other elements such as ADN and those that joined later. But let us focus on the first three.
Of all, the ACN seemed to be the most well established and in control of major cities like Lagos and Ibadan and several important states in the West and midwest. ACN was powerful enough to have nearly taken over Kogi State, which would have been its first and dramatic entry into the former Northern Region. CPC with Buhari was quite strong in the North West and Northeast. ANPP was actually the partner that looked really weak from the start. ANPP was not strong anywhere. But then, for symbolism sake, it suggested the involvement of some Igbo element in the alliance.
As the campaign seas on and elections approached, ti was clear that ANPP would not pull its weight in any serious way. It really fell to Tinubu/ACN faction and the CPC/Buhari faction to lead APC to victory. Right front that moment there were questions of how to share the sweets and sweats of APC politics. The first question was who would be the Presidential candidate. Tinubu would have been in the ticket along with Buhari. But the Muslim/Muslim issue came up. That frustrated any idea of Tinubu and Buhari teaming up. It also frustrated the possibility of Tinubu sending his protege, Fashiola, to team up with Buhari. Tinubu finally settled with sending another protege, Osinbanjo, who was Tinubu's Attorney General while the former was the Governor of Lagos for 8 years.
During the time it came for Buhari to choose a running mate. Ogbonnaya Onu had rightfully wanted to be Buhari's pick. But Buhari really had no choice. He must accord Tinubu that right or priority given the weight Tinubu controlled in the alliance.
Everybody understood that in politics so much would depend on who had the financial muscles to pay for things. So, financing of the campaign was going to be an issue of power and control. Since Buhari did not have a lot of money himself, there was fear that he could become totally emasculated by Tinubu's limitless resources, which controlled not just the vast assets within Lagos, but also the contributions and rents paid by ACN state governments all over the western part of Nigeria.
The Northern elements in APC understood the implications of leaving Buhari at the mercy of Tinubu as far as financing the campaign was concerned. So, some powerful Northern figures such as Atiku and Abdulmutalab and many more deeped into their infinite resources and supplied Buhari money and all he needed to avoid being emasculated by Tinubu. That effort to keep Buhari independent of Tinubu remained till today, and in fact, it manifested in the NASS brouhaha.
Elections over, it came to a time of choosing the cabinet. Again, the big financier, Tinubu, comes up with his list and demand for priority portfolios. Again the Northern elements disagreed. Buhari was again in the middle. But it is obvious to him the implications of Tinubu faction wielding too much influence in his government. It was impossible to totally ignore Tinubu, especially as it was not yet fully certain the level of power and influence he would retain over the party.
As of today, the ANPP elements in the alliance are virtually dead. As a result, Onu is hardly mentioned these days when you discuss power sharing within APC.
To fully determine how to complete the cabinet selection process, it was necessary to see how the power game played out in the selection of the leaders of the National Assembly. Tinubu's preferred candidates were those favoured by the party, which reflected Tinubu's influence level in the party. The Northern APC elements knew that allowing Tinubu's candidates to emerge as the leaders of the National Assembly would be a problem for Buhari and for their faction. They have carefully studied Tinubu's political machine. They knew Tinubu's political method. One way Tinubu was able to control the governors of Lagos and other ACN governors was to control the state legislature. By controlling the legislature, the executive governor remains under the control of Tinubu. This was the case throughout Fashiola's two terms. With that control, Tinubu could cause the governor to be impeached if he became disloyal to Tinubu. It was feared by the Northern element that Tinubu was trying to control Buhari through the same method of controlling the federal legislature. Tinubu already had his wife as a Senior Senator. Most of the Senior APC Senators are from ACN. So, since the chairmanship of Senate and House Committees are based on seniority, it would mean that ACN Senators, loyal to Tinubu would be mostly the chairmen of the various Senate and House Committees. There was reason to fear Tinubu's intentions toward the Senate and the House leaders. Hence the effort to derail that and whittle down his influence in order to minimise his leverage over Buhari.
So, when Buhari said he did not want to interfere in the selection of the House and Senate leaders, people should have asked him why was it necessary to issue such a disclaimer. The fact is that the President understood the dynamics all along. If Tinubu's controlled the Senate, then there may be difficulty getting senate confirmation for any minister unless Tinubu was happy. Hence the need to delay cabinet appointments until one was sure about what level of influence Tinubu would have over the 8th Senate.
The Northern elements of the APC had to fight and defeat Tinubu on the House and Senate leadership selection. The interesting dynamics here is that the Northern elements understood that in order to defeat Tinubu they needed the support of the Southeast and South South. Forget the reference to the parties. It was purely an NPN-game of aligning the North with the South East and South South in order to defeat the West. However, on the surface, it appears that the PDP members were smart and intelligent.
Many understand the dynamics. Actually, Tinubu's enemies, even in the West, are happy that Tinubu has been cut to size over the NASS matter. Indeed, Bode George, in an interview to the dailies, described the whole development in quite a fascinating and dramatic tone. He said that Tinubu wanted to play at the Federal level the same game he had perfected in Lagos. He summed it up as Tinubu being taught the real politics. He claimed that Tinubu was a local champion who had been outsmarted at the national stage.
If these assessments were correct, then what happened at NASS is quite a profound development. The long term effects are yet to be fully ascertained. One thing seems clear, though. The CPC and ACN elements in APC will soon part ways. APC as we know it will not survive till the next elections. What happens is that there will be a reformulation of another alliance to sustain these political players.
We continue to watch and observe.
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